Alexander Otsuka vs Matthew O'Rourke
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
5-13-0Record0-1-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'1"Height-
TBDReach-
203 lbsWeight205 lbs
TBDTeamTeam Ryano Waterford
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1489
If they lose-16→ 1457
If they win+24→ 1495
If they lose-24→ 1447
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1598 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1503 · 1 fights
Tracked stat edges
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Matthew O'Rourke61%
Alexander Otsuka 39%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Matthew O'Rourke a 61% favorite over Alexander Otsuka in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Alexander Otsuka's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1473 vs 1471), separated by just 2 points.
Alexander Otsuka finishes 75% of wins inside the distance.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.