Combat Edge Intelligence

Alexander Poppeck vs Jhonata Diniz

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

21-6-0Record9-2-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'2"Height6'4"
75"Reach 79"
205 lbsWeight255 lbs
Munich Top TeamTeamSanta Fe Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Alexander PoppeckNow 1670
If they win+12→ 1682
If they lose-12→ 1658
Jhonata DinizNow 1672
If they win+16→ 1688
If they lose-16→ 1656

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1544 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1595 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.01
Sig. strikes / min
3.89
58%
Strike accuracy
56%
9.81
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.62
33%
Strike defense
57%
0
Takedown avg.
0
0%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
0%
Takedown defense
70%
0
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Alexander PoppeckJhonata Diniz
1600165017002023202420252026

Win method breakdown

13 (65%)
KO/TKO
7 (78%)
1 (5%)
Submission
0 (0%)
6 (30%)
Decision
2 (22%)

Combat Edge model read

Alexander Poppeck51%
Jhonata Diniz 49%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Alexander Poppeck a 51% favorite over Jhonata Diniz in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Jhonata Diniz's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1670 vs 1672), separated by just 2 points.

Alexander Poppeck finishes 70% of wins inside the distance, Jhonata Diniz 78%.

Jhonata Diniz carries a 4-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.