Alexander Poppeck vs Jovan Leka
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Jovan Leka55%
Alexander Poppeck 45%Elo baseline: 54%
The Combat Edge model makes Jovan Leka a 55% favorite over Alexander Poppeck in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).
Jovan Leka holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1698 to 1672, a 26-point edge.
Jovan Leka enters on a 7-fight win streak.
Alexander Poppeck finishes 70% of wins inside the distance, Jovan Leka 86%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
21-6-0Record14-2-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'2"Height6'4"
75"Reach75"
205 lbsWeight259 lbs
What's at stake
Jovan Leka is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Alexander Poppeck carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1685
If they lose-11→ 1661
If they win+15→ 1713
If they lose-17→ 1681
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1548 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1536 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Alexander PoppeckJovan Leka