Alexander Schenk vs Francisco Hernandez
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
9-5-0Record5-2-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'8"
71"Reach-
148 lbsWeight149 lbs
What's at stake
Francisco Hernandez is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +21 while a loss costs more — Alexander Schenk carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+18→ 1574
If they lose-14→ 1542
If they win+21→ 1617
If they lose-27→ 1569
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1503 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1486 · 6 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alexander SchenkFrancisco Hernandez
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Alexander Schenk and Francisco Hernandez within a point of even.
Francisco Hernandez holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1596 to 1556, a 40-point edge.
Alexander Schenk enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Francisco Hernandez enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Alexander Schenk finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Francisco Hernandez 80%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.