Alexander Shabliy vs Eddie Alvarez
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
25-4-0Record30-8-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height5'9"
70"Reach69,0"
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
Peresvet Fight TeamTeamRicardo Almeida Jiu-Jitsu
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1800
If they lose-12→ 1776
If they win+12→ 1808
If they lose-12→ 1784
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1656 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1714 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alexander ShabliyEddie Alvarez
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alexander Shabliy87%
Eddie Alvarez 13%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Alexander Shabliy a 87% favorite over Eddie Alvarez in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Eddie Alvarez's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1788 vs 1796), separated by just 8 points.
Alexander Shabliy finishes 76% of wins inside the distance, Eddie Alvarez 80%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.