Combat Edge Intelligence

Alexander Shabliy vs Grant Dawson

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

25-4-0Record24-3-1
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'10"
70"Reach72"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Peresvet Fight TeamTeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

Grant Dawson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Alexander Shabliy carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Alexander ShabliyNow 1787
If they win+13→ 1800
If they lose-11→ 1776
Grant DawsonNow 1802
If they win+11→ 1813
If they lose-13→ 1789

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1656 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1723 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
3.14
TBD
Strike accuracy
51%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.14
TBD
Strike defense
45%
TBD
Takedown avg.
3.58
TBD
Takedown accuracy
0%
TBD
Takedown defense
67%
TBD
Submission avg.
1.36

Trajectory

Alexander ShabliyGrant Dawson
1800202420252026

Win method breakdown

12 (48%)
KO/TKO
5 (21%)
7 (28%)
Submission
14 (58%)
6 (24%)
Decision
5 (21%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Alexander Shabliy and Grant Dawson within a point of even.

Grant Dawson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1802 to 1787, a 15-point edge.

Alexander Shabliy finishes 76% of wins inside the distance, Grant Dawson 79%.

Grant Dawson carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.