Combat Edge Intelligence

Alexander Shabliy vs Grant Dawson

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

25-4-0Record24-3-1
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'10"
70"Reach72"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Peresvet Fight TeamTeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Alexander ShabliyNow 1788
If they win+12→ 1800
If they lose-12→ 1776
Grant DawsonNow 1802
If they win+12→ 1814
If they lose-12→ 1790

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1656 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1723 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
3.21
TBD
Strike accuracy
52%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.13
TBD
Strike defense
45%
TBD
Takedown avg.
3.81
TBD
Takedown accuracy
40%
TBD
Takedown defense
57%
TBD
Submission avg.
1.12

Trajectory

Alexander ShabliyGrant Dawson
1800202420252026

Win method breakdown

12 (48%)
KO/TKO
5 (21%)
7 (28%)
Submission
14 (58%)
6 (24%)
Decision
5 (21%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Alexander Shabliy and Grant Dawson within a point of even.

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1788 vs 1802), separated by just 14 points.

Alexander Shabliy finishes 76% of wins inside the distance, Grant Dawson 79%.

Grant Dawson carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.