Alexander Shabliy vs Olivier Aubin-Mercier
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
25-4-0Record21-5-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'9"
70"Reach70,5"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Peresvet Fight TeamTeamH2O MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1801
If they lose-12→ 1777
If they win+12→ 1806
If they lose-12→ 1782
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1656 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1651 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alexander ShabliyOlivier Aubin-Mercier
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alexander Shabliy59%
Olivier Aubin-Mercier 41%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Alexander Shabliy a 59% favorite over Olivier Aubin-Mercier in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Olivier Aubin-Mercier's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1789 vs 1794), separated by just 5 points.
Olivier Aubin-Mercier enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Alexander Shabliy finishes 76% of wins inside the distance, Olivier Aubin-Mercier 57%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.