Combat Edge Intelligence

Alexander Shlemenko vs Derek Brunson

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

68-17-1Record24-9-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'11"Height6'1"
70"Reach77,0"
185 lbsWeight186 lbs
Storm Shlemenko Fight TeamTeamKill Cliff FC

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Alexander ShlemenkoNow 1750
If they win+12→ 1762
If they lose-12→ 1738
Derek BrunsonNow 1755
If they win+12→ 1767
If they lose-12→ 1743

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1564 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1744 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
3.51
TBD
Strike accuracy
47%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.05
TBD
Strike defense
51%
TBD
Takedown avg.
3.14
TBD
Takedown accuracy
33%
TBD
Takedown defense
86%
TBD
Submission avg.
0.61

Trajectory

Alexander ShlemenkoDerek Brunson
175020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

35 (51%)
KO/TKO
12 (50%)
13 (19%)
Submission
4 (17%)
20 (29%)
Decision
8 (33%)

Combat Edge model read

Alexander Shlemenko56%
Derek Brunson 44%Elo baseline: 49%

The Combat Edge model makes Alexander Shlemenko a 56% favorite over Derek Brunson in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Derek Brunson's way (49%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1750 vs 1755), separated by just 5 points.

Alexander Shlemenko finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Derek Brunson 67%.

Derek Brunson carries a 7-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.