Alexander Volkanovski vs Brian Ortega
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
28-4-0Record16-5-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'6"Height5'9"
71″Reach69"
145 lbsWeight155 lbs
Freestyle Fighting GymTeamBlack House
What's at stake
Alexander Volkanovski is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Brian Ortega carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+7→ 1872
If they lose-17→ 1848
If they win+22→ 1738
If they lose-10→ 1706
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1785 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1776 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alexander VolkanovskiBrian Ortega
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alexander Volkanovski78%
Brian Ortega 22%Elo baseline: 70%
The Combat Edge model makes Alexander Volkanovski a 78% favorite over Brian Ortega in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (70%).
Alexander Volkanovski holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1865 to 1716, a 149-point edge.
Alexander Volkanovski enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Brian Ortega enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Alexander Volkanovski finishes 59% of wins inside the distance, Brian Ortega 69%.
Alexander Volkanovski and Brian Ortega share 4 common opponents: Diego Lopes, Yair Rodriguez, Max Holloway and Chan Sung Jung.
Alexander Volkanovski carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Common opponents (4)
WinDecision (unanimous) · 2026
WinDecision (unanimous) · 2025
LossDecision (unanimous) · 2024