Alexander Volkanovski vs Chad Mendes
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
28-4-0Record18-5-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'6"Height5'6"
71″Reach66"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Freestyle Fighting Gym· 1729 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamTeam Alpha Male· 1645 avg Elo · 20 rated
What's at stake
Alexander Volkanovski is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Chad Mendes carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+7→ 1872
If they lose-17→ 1848
If they win+23→ 1729
If they lose-9→ 1697
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1785 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1723 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Alexander VolkanovskiChad Mendes
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alexander Volkanovski80%
Chad Mendes 20%Elo baseline: 71%
The Combat Edge model makes Alexander Volkanovski a 80% favorite over Chad Mendes in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (71%).
Alexander Volkanovski holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1865 to 1706, a 159-point edge.
Alexander Volkanovski enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Alexander Volkanovski finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Chad Mendes 56%.
Alexander Volkanovski carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.