Combat Edge Intelligence

Alexander Volkanovski vs Islam Makhachev

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

28-4-0Record29-1-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'6"Height5'10"
71″Reach70"
145 lbsWeight155 lbs
Freestyle Fighting Gym· 1735 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamEagles MMA· 1817 avg Elo · 5 rated

What's at stake

Islam Makhachev is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Alexander Volkanovski carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Alexander VolkanovskiNow 1865
If they win+14→ 1879
If they lose-10→ 1855
Islam MakhachevNow 1931
If they win+10→ 1941
If they lose-14→ 1917

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1785 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1796 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

5.99
Sig. strikes / min
2.27
57%
Strike accuracy
58%
3.31
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.42
59%
Strike defense
61%
1.63
Takedown avg.
3.22
16%
Takedown accuracy
15%
69%
Takedown defense
91%
0.20
Submission avg.
0.87

Trajectory

Alexander VolkanovskiIslam Makhachev
185019001950202420252026

Win method breakdown

13 (46%)
KO/TKO
5 (17%)
3 (11%)
Submission
13 (45%)
12 (43%)
Decision
11 (38%)

Combat Edge model read

Islam Makhachev92%
Alexander Volkanovski 8%Elo baseline: 59%

The Combat Edge model makes Islam Makhachev a 92% favorite over Alexander Volkanovski in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).

Islam Makhachev holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1931 to 1865, a 66-point edge.

Alexander Volkanovski enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Islam Makhachev enters on a 10-fight win streak.

Alexander Volkanovski finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Islam Makhachev 62%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.