Alexander Volkanovski vs Max Holloway
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
28-4-0Record27-9-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'6"Height5'11"
71″Reach69"
145 lbsWeight155 lbs
Freestyle Fighting GymTeamGracie Technics
What's at stake
Alexander Volkanovski is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Max Holloway carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1875
If they lose-14→ 1851
If they win+14→ 1831
If they lose-10→ 1807
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1785 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1794 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alexander VolkanovskiMax Holloway
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alexander Volkanovski61%
Max Holloway 39%Elo baseline: 57%
The Combat Edge model makes Alexander Volkanovski a 61% favorite over Max Holloway in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).
Alexander Volkanovski holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1865 to 1817, a 48-point edge.
Alexander Volkanovski enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Alexander Volkanovski finishes 59% of wins inside the distance, Max Holloway 52%.
Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway share 3 common opponents: Ilia Topuria, Yair Rodriguez and Chan Sung Jung.
Alexander Volkanovski carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.