Combat Edge Intelligence

Alexander Volkanovski vs Mizuto Hirota

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

28-4-0Record18-11-2
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'6"Height5'7"
71″Reach67,5"
145 lbsWeight155 lbs
Freestyle Fighting GymTeamCave

What's at stake

Alexander Volkanovski is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +5 while a loss costs more — Mizuto Hirota carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Alexander VolkanovskiNow 1865
If they win+5→ 1870
If they lose-19→ 1846
Mizuto HirotaNow 1618
If they win+19→ 1637
If they lose-5→ 1613

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1785 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1586 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

6.18
Sig. strikes / min
3.36
57%
Strike accuracy
41%
3.36
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.50
59%
Strike defense
55%
1.67
Takedown avg.
1.36
34%
Takedown accuracy
50%
70%
Takedown defense
59%
0.16
Submission avg.
0.12

Trajectory

Alexander VolkanovskiMizuto Hirota
1600170018002017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

13 (48%)
KO/TKO
10 (56%)
3 (11%)
Submission
0 (0%)
11 (41%)
Decision
8 (44%)

Combat Edge model read

Alexander Volkanovski88%
Mizuto Hirota 12%Elo baseline: 81%

The Combat Edge model makes Alexander Volkanovski a 88% favorite over Mizuto Hirota in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (81%).

Alexander Volkanovski holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1865 to 1618, a 247-point edge.

Alexander Volkanovski enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Mizuto Hirota enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Alexander Volkanovski finishes 59% of wins inside the distance, Mizuto Hirota 56%.

Alexander Volkanovski carries a 4-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.