Alexander Volkanovski vs Yair Rodriguez
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
28-4-0Record20-5-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'6"Height5'11"
71″Reach71"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Freestyle Fighting Gym· 1735 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamValle Flow Striking· 1672 avg Elo · 3 rated
What's at stake
Alexander Volkanovski is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Yair Rodriguez carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+8→ 1873
If they lose-16→ 1849
If they win+21→ 1772
If they lose-11→ 1740
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1785 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1736 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alexander VolkanovskiYair Rodriguez
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alexander Volkanovski72%
Yair Rodriguez 28%Elo baseline: 66%
The Combat Edge model makes Alexander Volkanovski a 72% favorite over Yair Rodriguez in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (66%).
Alexander Volkanovski holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1865 to 1751, a 114-point edge.
Alexander Volkanovski enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Alexander Volkanovski finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Yair Rodriguez 65%.
Alexander Volkanovski and Yair Rodriguez share 3 common opponents: Max Holloway, Chan Sung Jung and Brian Ortega.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Common opponents (3)
WinDecision (unanimous) · 2021
WinDecision (Unanimous) · 2021
LossSubmission · 2024
WinKO/TKO · 2022