Combat Edge Intelligence

Alexander Volkanovski vs Yusuke Kasuya

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

28-4-0Record15-9-2
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'6"Height5'7"
71″Reach67.00
145 lbsWeight155 lbs
Freestyle Fighting GymTeamCrown Dojo

What's at stake

Alexander Volkanovski is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +3 while a loss costs more — Yusuke Kasuya carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Alexander VolkanovskiNow 1865
If they win+3→ 1868
If they lose-21→ 1844
Yusuke KasuyaNow 1549
If they win+41→ 1590
If they lose-7→ 1542

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1785 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1620 · 6 fights

Tracked stat edges

6.18
Sig. strikes / min
2.17
57%
Strike accuracy
44%
3.36
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.34
59%
Strike defense
49%
1.67
Takedown avg.
1.36
34%
Takedown accuracy
33%
70%
Takedown defense
0%
0.16
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Alexander VolkanovskiYusuke Kasuya
15001600170018002017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

13 (48%)
KO/TKO
3 (20%)
3 (11%)
Submission
11 (73%)
11 (41%)
Decision
1 (7%)

Combat Edge model read

Alexander Volkanovski79%
Yusuke Kasuya 21%Elo baseline: 86%

The Combat Edge model makes Alexander Volkanovski a 79% favorite over Yusuke Kasuya in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (86%).

Alexander Volkanovski holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1865 to 1549, a 316-point edge.

Alexander Volkanovski enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Alexander Volkanovski finishes 59% of wins inside the distance, Yusuke Kasuya 93%.

Alexander Volkanovski carries a 4-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.