Alexander Volkov vs Derrick Lewis
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
40-11-0Record29-14-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'7"Height6'3"
80"Reach79"
258 lbsWeight264 lbs
Strela TeamTeamMain Street Boxing & Muay Thai
What's at stake
Alexander Volkov is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Derrick Lewis carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+9→ 1839
If they lose-15→ 1815
If they win+15→ 1759
If they lose-9→ 1735
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1748 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1717 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alexander VolkovDerrick Lewis
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alexander Volkov71%
Derrick Lewis 29%Elo baseline: 62%
The Combat Edge model makes Alexander Volkov a 71% favorite over Derrick Lewis in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (62%).
Alexander Volkov holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1830 to 1744, a 86-point edge.
Alexander Volkov enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Derrick Lewis enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Alexander Volkov finishes 70% of wins inside the distance, Derrick Lewis 86%.
Alexander Volkov and Derrick Lewis share 4 common opponents: Waldo Cortes-Acosta, Jailton Almeida, Sergei Pavlovich and Tai Tuivasa.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.