Alexander Volkov vs Tom Aspinall
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
40-11-0Record15-3-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'7"Height6'5"
80"Reach78"
258 lbsWeight251 lbs
What's at stake
Alexander Volkov is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Tom Aspinall carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1839
If they lose-14→ 1815
If they win+18→ 1793
If they lose-14→ 1761
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1748 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1702 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Alexander VolkovTom Aspinall
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alexander Volkov60%
Tom Aspinall 40%Elo baseline: 58%
The Combat Edge model makes Alexander Volkov a 60% favorite over Tom Aspinall in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).
Alexander Volkov holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1829 to 1775, a 54-point edge.
Alexander Volkov enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Tom Aspinall enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Alexander Volkov finishes 70% of wins inside the distance, Tom Aspinall 100%.
Alexander Volkov and Tom Aspinall share 2 common opponents: Sergei Pavlovich and Marcin Tybura.
Alexander Volkov carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.