Alexander Volkov vs Tom Aspinall
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
40-11-0Record15-3-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'7"Height6'5"
80"Reach78"
258 lbsWeight251 lbs
Strela TeamTeamTeam Kaobon
What's at stake
Alexander Volkov is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Tom Aspinall carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1840
If they lose-14→ 1816
If they win+19→ 1794
If they lose-13→ 1762
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1748 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1701 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alexander VolkovTom Aspinall
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Tom Aspinall52%
Alexander Volkov 48%Elo baseline: 42%
The Combat Edge model makes Tom Aspinall a 52% favorite over Alexander Volkov in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Alexander Volkov's way (42%).
Alexander Volkov holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1830 to 1775, a 55-point edge.
Alexander Volkov enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Tom Aspinall enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Alexander Volkov finishes 70% of wins inside the distance, Tom Aspinall 100%.
Alexander Volkov and Tom Aspinall share 2 common opponents: Sergei Pavlovich and Marcin Tybura.
Alexander Volkov carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.