Combat Edge Intelligence

Alexandr Romanov vs Cain Velasquez

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

18-3-0Record14-3-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'2"Height6'1"
75"Reach77"
261 lbsWeight241 lbs
Lion ClubTeamAmerican Kickboxing Academy· 1641 avg Elo · 5 rated

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Alexandr RomanovNow 1747
If they win+16→ 1763
If they lose-16→ 1731
Cain VelasquezNow 1737
If they win+16→ 1753
If they lose-16→ 1721

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1680 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1741 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.78
Sig. strikes / min
6.37
52%
Strike accuracy
58%
2.13
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.33
54%
Strike defense
57%
4.49
Takedown avg.
5.13
55%
Takedown accuracy
45%
29%
Takedown defense
86%
0.86
Submission avg.
0.38

Trajectory

Alexandr RomanovCain Velasquez
175020172018201920202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

6 (33%)
KO/TKO
12 (86%)
9 (50%)
Submission
0 (0%)
3 (17%)
Decision
2 (14%)

Combat Edge model read

Alexandr Romanov60%
Cain Velasquez 40%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Alexandr Romanov a 60% favorite over Cain Velasquez in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1747 vs 1737), separated by just 10 points.

Alexandr Romanov finishes 83% of wins inside the distance, Cain Velasquez 86%.

Cain Velasquez carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.