Alexandr Romanov vs Jared Vanderaa
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
22-4-0Record18-13-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'2"Height6'4"
75"Reach80"
261 lbsWeight259 lbs
What's at stake
Alexandr Romanov is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Jared Vanderaa carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+6→ 1776
If they lose-18→ 1752
If they win+18→ 1593
If they lose-6→ 1569
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1666 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1565 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Alexandr RomanovJared Vanderaa
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alexandr Romanov84%
Jared Vanderaa 16%Elo baseline: 75%
The Combat Edge model makes Alexandr Romanov a 84% favorite over Jared Vanderaa in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (75%).
Alexandr Romanov holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1770 to 1575, a 195-point edge.
Alexandr Romanov enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Jared Vanderaa enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Alexandr Romanov finishes 86% of wins inside the distance, Jared Vanderaa 83%.
Jared Vanderaa carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.