Alexandr Romanov vs Jared Vanderaa
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-3-0Record17-11-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'2"Height6'4"
75"Reach80"
261 lbsWeight259 lbs
Lion ClubTeamTeam Quest
What's at stake
Alexandr Romanov is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Jared Vanderaa carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+9→ 1756
If they lose-23→ 1724
If they win+17→ 1602
If they lose-7→ 1578
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1680 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1596 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alexandr RomanovJared Vanderaa
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alexandr Romanov75%
Jared Vanderaa 25%Elo baseline: 72%
The Combat Edge model makes Alexandr Romanov a 75% favorite over Jared Vanderaa in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (72%).
Alexandr Romanov holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1747 to 1585, a 162-point edge.
Jared Vanderaa enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Alexandr Romanov finishes 83% of wins inside the distance, Jared Vanderaa 82%.
Alexandr Romanov and Jared Vanderaa share 1 common opponent: Chase Sherman.
Jared Vanderaa carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.