Combat Edge Intelligence

Alexandr Romanov vs Philip De Fries

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

18-3-0Record25-6-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'2"Height6'4"
75"ReachTBD
261 lbsWeight264 lbs
Lion ClubTeamAlliance MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Alexandr RomanovNow 1747
If they win+16→ 1763
If they lose-16→ 1731
Philip De FriesNow 1749
If they win+12→ 1761
If they lose-12→ 1737

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1680 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1606 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.78
Sig. strikes / min
2.30
52%
Strike accuracy
47%
2.13
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3
54%
Strike defense
38%
4.49
Takedown avg.
3.29
55%
Takedown accuracy
43%
29%
Takedown defense
100%
0.86
Submission avg.
0.55

Trajectory

Alexandr RomanovPhilip De Fries
1700175020232024

Win method breakdown

6 (33%)
KO/TKO
6 (24%)
9 (50%)
Submission
14 (56%)
3 (17%)
Decision
5 (20%)

Combat Edge model read

Alexandr Romanov61%
Philip De Fries 39%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Alexandr Romanov a 61% favorite over Philip De Fries in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Philip De Fries's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1747 vs 1749), separated by just 2 points.

Philip De Fries enters on a 10-fight win streak.

Alexandr Romanov finishes 83% of wins inside the distance, Philip De Fries 80%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.