Combat Edge Intelligence

Alexandr Romanov vs Rodrigo Nascimento

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

18-3-0Record11-3-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'2"Height6'4"
75"Reach80"
261 lbsWeight265 lbs
Lion ClubTeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

Alexandr Romanov is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Rodrigo Nascimento carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Alexandr RomanovNow 1747
If they win+12→ 1759
If they lose-20→ 1727
Rodrigo NascimentoNow 1666
If they win+20→ 1686
If they lose-12→ 1654

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1680 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1653 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.78
Sig. strikes / min
3.71
52%
Strike accuracy
47%
2.13
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.34
54%
Strike defense
45%
4.49
Takedown avg.
1.02
55%
Takedown accuracy
38%
29%
Takedown defense
61%
0.86
Submission avg.
0.51

Trajectory

Alexandr RomanovRodrigo Nascimento
165017001750202320242025

Win method breakdown

6 (33%)
KO/TKO
2 (18%)
9 (50%)
Submission
6 (55%)
3 (17%)
Decision
3 (27%)

Combat Edge model read

Alexandr Romanov63%
Rodrigo Nascimento 37%Elo baseline: 61%

The Combat Edge model makes Alexandr Romanov a 63% favorite over Rodrigo Nascimento in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).

Alexandr Romanov holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1747 to 1666, a 81-point edge.

Alexandr Romanov finishes 83% of wins inside the distance, Rodrigo Nascimento 73%.

Rodrigo Nascimento carries a 5-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.