Combat Edge Intelligence

Alexandre Franca Nogueira vs Cássio Barão

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

18-6-3Record10-1-1
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'7"Height5'8"
TBDReach71"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Pequeno TeamTeamDyogo Teles MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Alexandre Franca NogueiraNow 1641
If they win+12→ 1653
If they lose-12→ 1629
Cássio BarãoNow 1641
If they win+16→ 1657
If they lose-16→ 1625

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1525 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1503 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not available
Sig. strikes / min
Not available
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Strike accuracy
Not available
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Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
Not available
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Strike defense
Not available
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Takedown avg.
Not available
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Takedown accuracy
Not available
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Takedown defense
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Submission avg.
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Trajectory

Alexandre Franca NogueiraCássio Barão
1600165020132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

2 (11%)
KO/TKO
4 (40%)
12 (67%)
Submission
5 (50%)
4 (22%)
Decision
1 (10%)

Combat Edge model read

Cássio Barão59%
Alexandre Franca Nogueira 41%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Cássio Barão a 59% favorite over Alexandre Franca Nogueira in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Alexandre Franca Nogueira's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1641 vs 1641), separated by just 0 points.

Alexandre Franca Nogueira enters on a 4-fight win streak.

Cássio Barão enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Alexandre Franca Nogueira finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Cássio Barão 90%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.