Combat Edge Intelligence

Alexandre Franca Nogueira vs Marc Diakiese

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

18-6-3Record18-8-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'7"Height5'10"
TBDReach73"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Pequeno TeamTeamGreat Britain Top Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Alexandre Franca NogueiraNow 1641
If they win+12→ 1653
If they lose-12→ 1629
Marc DiakieseNow 1641
If they win+12→ 1653
If they lose-12→ 1629

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1525 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1632 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
2.54
TBD
Strike accuracy
40%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.64
TBD
Strike defense
53%
TBD
Takedown avg.
3.29
TBD
Takedown accuracy
10%
TBD
Takedown defense
67%
TBD
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Alexandre Franca NogueiraMarc Diakiese
1600165017002013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

2 (11%)
KO/TKO
6 (33%)
12 (67%)
Submission
1 (6%)
4 (22%)
Decision
11 (61%)

Combat Edge model read

Marc Diakiese57%
Alexandre Franca Nogueira 43%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Marc Diakiese a 57% favorite over Alexandre Franca Nogueira in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Alexandre Franca Nogueira's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1641 vs 1641), separated by just 0 points.

Alexandre Franca Nogueira enters on a 4-fight win streak.

Alexandre Franca Nogueira finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Marc Diakiese 39%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.