Combat Edge Intelligence

Alexandre Franca Nogueira vs Nicolas Sávio

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

18-6-3Record13-6-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'7"Height5'7"
TBDReach-
155 lbsWeight154 lbs
Pequeno TeamTeamStrikers MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Alexandre Franca NogueiraNow 1641
If they win+12→ 1653
If they lose-12→ 1629
Nicolas SávioNow 1642
If they win+16→ 1658
If they lose-16→ 1626

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1525 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1540 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not available
Sig. strikes / min
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Strike accuracy
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Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
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Strike defense
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Takedown avg.
Not available
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Takedown accuracy
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Takedown defense
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Submission avg.
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Trajectory

Alexandre Franca NogueiraNicolas Sávio
15501600165020132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

2 (11%)
KO/TKO
6 (46%)
12 (67%)
Submission
3 (23%)
4 (22%)
Decision
4 (31%)

Combat Edge model read

Nicolas Sávio66%
Alexandre Franca Nogueira 34%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Nicolas Sávio a 66% favorite over Alexandre Franca Nogueira in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1641 vs 1642), separated by just 1 points.

Alexandre Franca Nogueira enters on a 4-fight win streak.

Alexandre Franca Nogueira finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Nicolas Sávio 69%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.