Alexandre Pantoja vs Brandon Moreno
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
30-6-0Record23-10-2
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'5"Height5'7"
67"Reach70"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
American Top TeamTeamFortis MMA
What's at stake
Alexandre Pantoja is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Brandon Moreno carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1818
If they lose-14→ 1794
If they win+14→ 1762
If they lose-10→ 1738
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1714 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1741 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alexandre PantojaBrandon Moreno
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alexandre Pantoja64%
Brandon Moreno 36%Elo baseline: 59%
The Combat Edge model makes Alexandre Pantoja a 64% favorite over Brandon Moreno in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).
Alexandre Pantoja holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1808 to 1748, a 60-point edge.
Brandon Moreno enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Alexandre Pantoja finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Brandon Moreno 70%.
Alexandre Pantoja and Brandon Moreno share 3 common opponents: Kai Kara-France, Steve Erceg and Brandon Royval.
Brandon Moreno carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.