Combat Edge Intelligence

Alexandre Pantoja vs Demetrious Johnson

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

30-6-0Record25-4-1
FlyweightDivisionBantamweight
5'5"Height5'3"
67"Reach 66.00"
125 lbsWeight135 lbs
American Top TeamTeamAMC Pankration

What's at stake

Demetrious Johnson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Alexandre Pantoja carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Alexandre PantojaNow 1808
If they win+13→ 1821
If they lose-11→ 1797
Demetrious JohnsonNow 1844
If they win+11→ 1855
If they lose-13→ 1831

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1713 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1630 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.36
Sig. strikes / min
3.43
50%
Strike accuracy
55%
3.88
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.66
50%
Strike defense
67%
2.80
Takedown avg.
3.35
48%
Takedown accuracy
56%
69%
Takedown defense
66%
0.98
Submission avg.
0.52

Trajectory

Alexandre PantojaDemetrious Johnson
1750180018502022202320242025

Win method breakdown

8 (27%)
KO/TKO
5 (20%)
12 (40%)
Submission
8 (32%)
10 (33%)
Decision
12 (48%)

Combat Edge model read

Alexandre Pantoja61%
Demetrious Johnson 39%Elo baseline: 45%

The Combat Edge model makes Alexandre Pantoja a 61% favorite over Demetrious Johnson in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Demetrious Johnson's way (45%).

Demetrious Johnson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1844 to 1808, a 36-point edge.

Demetrious Johnson enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Alexandre Pantoja finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Demetrious Johnson 52%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.