Alexandre Pantoja vs Kai Asakura
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
30-7-0Record23-6-0
FlyweightDivisionBantamweight
5'5"Height5'8"
67"Reach69"
125 lbsWeight134 lbs
American Top TeamTeamJapan Top Team· 1655 avg Elo · 5 rated
What's at stake
Alexandre Pantoja is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Kai Asakura carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1806
If they lose-14→ 1782
If they win+14→ 1747
If they lose-10→ 1723
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1722 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1606 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Alexandre PantojaKai Asakura
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alexandre Pantoja72%
Kai Asakura 28%Elo baseline: 59%
The Combat Edge model makes Alexandre Pantoja a 72% favorite over Kai Asakura in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).
Alexandre Pantoja holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1796 to 1733, a 63-point edge.
Alexandre Pantoja enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Kai Asakura enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Alexandre Pantoja finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Kai Asakura 78%.
Kai Asakura carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.