Combat Edge Intelligence

Alexandre Pantoja vs Kai Asakura

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

30-6-0Record22-6-0
FlyweightDivisionBantamweight
5'5"Height5'8"
67"Reach69"
125 lbsWeight134 lbs
American Top TeamTeamJapan Top Team

What's at stake

Alexandre Pantoja is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Kai Asakura carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Alexandre PantojaNow 1808
If they win+9→ 1817
If they lose-15→ 1793
Kai AsakuraNow 1712
If they win+15→ 1727
If they lose-9→ 1703

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1713 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1606 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.36
Sig. strikes / min
2.27
50%
Strike accuracy
33%
3.88
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.53
50%
Strike defense
52%
2.80
Takedown avg.
0
48%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
69%
Takedown defense
50%
0.98
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Alexandre PantojaKai Asakura
170017501800202420252026

Win method breakdown

8 (27%)
KO/TKO
13 (62%)
12 (40%)
Submission
3 (14%)
10 (33%)
Decision
5 (24%)

Combat Edge model read

Alexandre Pantoja66%
Kai Asakura 34%Elo baseline: 63%

The Combat Edge model makes Alexandre Pantoja a 66% favorite over Kai Asakura in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).

Alexandre Pantoja holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1808 to 1712, a 96-point edge.

Alexandre Pantoja finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Kai Asakura 76%.

Kai Asakura carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.