Alexandre Pantoja vs Kai Kara-France
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
30-7-0Record25-12-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'5"Height5'5"
67"Reach69″
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
American Top TeamTeamCity Kickboxing
What's at stake
Alexandre Pantoja is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Kai Kara-France carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+8→ 1804
If they lose-16→ 1780
If they win+16→ 1695
If they lose-8→ 1671
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1722 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1711 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Alexandre PantojaKai Kara-France
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alexandre Pantoja64%
Kai Kara-France 36%Elo baseline: 66%
The Combat Edge model makes Alexandre Pantoja a 64% favorite over Kai Kara-France in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (66%).
Alexandre Pantoja holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1796 to 1679, a 117-point edge.
Alexandre Pantoja enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Alexandre Pantoja finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Kai Kara-France 60%.
Alexandre Pantoja and Kai Kara-France share 3 common opponents: Steve Erceg, Brandon Royval and Brandon Moreno.
Kai Kara-France carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.