Alexandre Pantoja vs Steve Erceg
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
30-7-0Record14-5-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'5"Height5'8"
67"Reach 68"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
American Top TeamTeamWilkes Martial Arts
What's at stake
Alexandre Pantoja is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Steve Erceg carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+8→ 1804
If they lose-16→ 1780
If they win+21→ 1709
If they lose-11→ 1677
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1722 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1676 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Alexandre PantojaSteve Erceg
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alexandre Pantoja60%
Steve Erceg 40%Elo baseline: 65%
The Combat Edge model makes Alexandre Pantoja a 60% favorite over Steve Erceg in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (65%).
Alexandre Pantoja holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1796 to 1688, a 108-point edge.
Alexandre Pantoja enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Alexandre Pantoja finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Steve Erceg 57%.
Alexandre Pantoja and Steve Erceg share 2 common opponents: Kai Kara-France and Brandon Moreno.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.