Alexandre Pantoja vs Tatsuro Taira
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
30-6-0Record18-2-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'5"Height5'7"
67"Reach70"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
American Top TeamTeamThe Blackbelt Japan· 1682 avg Elo · 4 rated
What's at stake
Alexandre Pantoja is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Tatsuro Taira carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1819
If they lose-13→ 1795
If they win+17→ 1808
If they lose-15→ 1776
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1714 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1694 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alexandre PantojaTatsuro Taira
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Tatsuro Taira66%
Alexandre Pantoja 34%Elo baseline: 48%
The Combat Edge model makes Tatsuro Taira a 66% favorite over Alexandre Pantoja in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Alexandre Pantoja's way (48%).
Alexandre Pantoja holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1808 to 1791, a 17-point edge.
Alexandre Pantoja finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Tatsuro Taira 78%.
Alexandre Pantoja and Tatsuro Taira share 4 common opponents: Joshua Van, Brandon Royval, Brandon Moreno and Alex Perez.
Tatsuro Taira carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.