Alexey Polpudnikov vs Trey Waters
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
36-13-1Record10-2-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'6"Height6'5"
-Reach77"
171 lbsWeight170 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1692
If they lose-12→ 1668
If they win+16→ 1695
If they lose-16→ 1663
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1627 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1580 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Alexey PolpudnikovTrey Waters
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alexey Polpudnikov58%
Trey Waters 42%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Alexey Polpudnikov a 58% favorite over Trey Waters in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1680 vs 1679), separated by just 1 points.
Alexey Polpudnikov enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Alexey Polpudnikov finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Trey Waters 70%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.