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Combat Edge Intelligence

Alexey Shurkevich vs Tom Breese

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

19-6-0Record21-8-0
MiddleweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'0"Height6'3"
73"Reach73.5"
172 lbsWeight205 lbs
Storm Shlemenko Fight Team· 1678 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamTeam Renegade· 1737 avg Elo · 3 rated

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Alexey ShurkevichNow 1684
If they win+12→ 1696
If they lose-12→ 1672
Tom BreeseNow 1682
If they win+12→ 1694
If they lose-12→ 1670

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1553 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1581 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not available
Sig. strikes / min
3.34
Not available
Strike accuracy
51%
Not available
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.81
Not available
Strike defense
61%
Not available
Takedown avg.
0
Not available
Takedown accuracy
0%
Not available
Takedown defense
71%
Not available
Submission avg.
1.07

Trajectory

Alexey ShurkevichTom Breese
1600165017001750202420252026

Win method breakdown

12 (63%)
KO/TKO
5 (24%)
1 (5%)
Submission
14 (67%)
6 (32%)
Decision
2 (10%)

Combat Edge model read

Tom Breese60%
Alexey Shurkevich 40%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Tom Breese a 60% favorite over Alexey Shurkevich in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Alexey Shurkevich's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1684 vs 1682), separated by just 2 points.

Alexey Shurkevich enters on a 6-fight win streak.

Alexey Shurkevich finishes 68% of wins inside the distance, Tom Breese 90%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.