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Combat Edge Intelligence

Alexis Dufresne vs Mafalda Carmona

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

6-3-0Record8-4-0
LightweightDivisionBantamweight
5'9"Height5'6"
TBDReach64.2"
150 lbsWeight135 lbs
Team QuestTeamBulgarian Top Team· 1614 avg Elo · 6 rated

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Alexis DufresneNow 1567
If they win+24→ 1591
If they lose-24→ 1543
Mafalda CarmonaNow 1566
If they win+16→ 1582
If they lose-16→ 1550

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1518 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1507 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

1.33
Sig. strikes / min
Not available
28%
Strike accuracy
Not available
3.33
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
Not available
61%
Strike defense
Not available
1.50
Takedown avg.
Not available
50%
Takedown accuracy
Not available
50%
Takedown defense
Not available
0
Submission avg.
Not available

Trajectory

Alexis DufresneMafalda Carmona
15501600201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (50%)
KO/TKO
4 (50%)
3 (50%)
Submission
1 (13%)
0 (0%)
Decision
3 (38%)

Combat Edge model read

Alexis Dufresne53%
Mafalda Carmona 47%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Alexis Dufresne a 53% favorite over Mafalda Carmona in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1567 vs 1566), separated by just 1 points.

Alexis Dufresne finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Mafalda Carmona 63%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.