Alexis Dufresne vs Marion Reneau
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
6-3-0Record9-8-1
LightweightDivisionBantamweight
5'9"Height5'6"
TBDReachTBD
150 lbsWeight135 lbs
Team QuestTeamElite Team
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1591
If they lose-24→ 1543
If they win+16→ 1585
If they lose-16→ 1553
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1518 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1611 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alexis DufresneMarion Reneau
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alexis Dufresne58%
Marion Reneau 42%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Alexis Dufresne a 58% favorite over Marion Reneau in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Marion Reneau's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1567 vs 1569), separated by just 2 points.
Marion Reneau enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Alexis Dufresne finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Marion Reneau 89%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.