Ali AlQaisi vs Tony Kelley
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-8-0Record8-3-0
BantamweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'8"Height5'10"
38,0"Reach70"
135 lbsWeight138 lbs
Gladiator MMATeamTeam Alpha Male· 1645 avg Elo · 20 rated
What's at stake
Ali AlQaisi is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Tony Kelley carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1643
If they lose-18→ 1611
If they win+26→ 1619
If they lose-22→ 1571
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1561 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1568 · 9 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Ali AlQaisiTony Kelley
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ali AlQaisi54%
Tony Kelley 46%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes Ali AlQaisi a 54% favorite over Tony Kelley in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
Ali AlQaisi holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1629 to 1593, a 36-point edge.
Ali AlQaisi finishes 53% of wins inside the distance, Tony Kelley 75%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.