Ali AlQaisi vs Tony Kelley
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-8-0Record8-3-0
BantamweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'8"Height5'10"
38,0"Reach70"
135 lbsWeight138 lbs
Gladiator MMATeamTeam Alpha Male· 1646 avg Elo · 22 rated
What's at stake
Ali AlQaisi is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Tony Kelley carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1640
If they lose-17→ 1608
If they win+26→ 1620
If they lose-22→ 1572
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1549 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1568 · 9 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Ali AlQaisiTony Kelley
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Tony Kelley58%
Ali AlQaisi 42%Elo baseline: 46%
The Combat Edge model makes Tony Kelley a 58% favorite over Ali AlQaisi in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Ali AlQaisi's way (46%).
Ali AlQaisi holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1625 to 1594, a 31-point edge.
Ali AlQaisi finishes 53% of wins inside the distance, Tony Kelley 75%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.