Combat Edge Intelligence

Ali Bagautinov vs Geane Herrera

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

22-7-0Record10-3-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'4"Height5'5"
65,0"Reach66,0"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Fight Club KrepostTeamBanks MMA

What's at stake

Ali Bagautinov is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Geane Herrera carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Ali BagautinovNow 1715
If they win+9→ 1724
If they lose-15→ 1700
Geane HerreraNow 1623
If they win+20→ 1643
If they lose-12→ 1611

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1585 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1550 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.85
Sig. strikes / min
1.51
42%
Strike accuracy
31%
3.09
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
5.07
52%
Strike defense
53%
2.51
Takedown avg.
0.83
37%
Takedown accuracy
38%
65%
Takedown defense
38%
0.26
Submission avg.
0.55

Trajectory

Ali BagautinovGeane Herrera
160016501700201620172018201920202021

Win method breakdown

6 (27%)
KO/TKO
2 (20%)
5 (23%)
Submission
6 (60%)
11 (50%)
Decision
2 (20%)

Combat Edge model read

Ali Bagautinov61%
Geane Herrera 39%Elo baseline: 63%

The Combat Edge model makes Ali Bagautinov a 61% favorite over Geane Herrera in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).

Ali Bagautinov holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1715 to 1623, a 92-point edge.

Ali Bagautinov enters on a 3-fight win streak.

Ali Bagautinov finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Geane Herrera 80%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.