Ali Bagautinov vs Joseph Benavidez
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
22-7-0Record28-8-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'4"Height5'4"
65,0"ReachTBD
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Fight Club KrepostTeamXtreme Couture
What's at stake
Joseph Benavidez is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Ali Bagautinov carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1728
If they lose-10→ 1704
If they win+10→ 1793
If they lose-14→ 1769
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1582 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1718 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Ali BagautinovJoseph Benavidez
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Joseph Benavidez59%
Ali Bagautinov 41%Elo baseline: 60%
The Combat Edge model makes Joseph Benavidez a 59% favorite over Ali Bagautinov in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).
Joseph Benavidez holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1783 to 1714, a 69-point edge.
Ali Bagautinov enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Joseph Benavidez enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Ali Bagautinov finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Joseph Benavidez 61%.
Ali Bagautinov and Joseph Benavidez share 1 common opponent: Dustin Ortiz.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.