Combat Edge Intelligence

Ali Bagautinov vs Kyoji Horiguchi

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

22-7-0Record36-6-0
FlyweightDivisionBantamweight
5'4"Height5'5"
65,0"Reach66"
125 lbsWeight134 lbs
Fight Club KrepostTeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

Kyoji Horiguchi is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Ali Bagautinov carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Ali BagautinovNow 1714
If they win+15→ 1729
If they lose-9→ 1705
Kyoji HoriguchiNow 1800
If they win+9→ 1809
If they lose-15→ 1785

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1582 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1646 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.85
Sig. strikes / min
3.77
42%
Strike accuracy
47%
3.09
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.13
52%
Strike defense
64%
2.51
Takedown avg.
1.61
37%
Takedown accuracy
41%
65%
Takedown defense
61%
0.26
Submission avg.
0.11

Trajectory

Ali BagautinovKyoji Horiguchi
1700175018002020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

6 (27%)
KO/TKO
15 (42%)
5 (23%)
Submission
6 (17%)
11 (50%)
Decision
15 (42%)

Combat Edge model read

Kyoji Horiguchi79%
Ali Bagautinov 21%Elo baseline: 62%

The Combat Edge model makes Kyoji Horiguchi a 79% favorite over Ali Bagautinov in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (62%).

Kyoji Horiguchi holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1800 to 1714, a 86-point edge.

Ali Bagautinov enters on a 3-fight win streak.

Ali Bagautinov finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Kyoji Horiguchi 58%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.