Ali Bagautinov vs Marcos Vinicius
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
22-7-0Record1-3-0
FlyweightDivisionStrawweight
5'4"Height5'6"
65,0"ReachTBD
125 lbsWeight115 lbs
Fight Club KrepostTeamZe Mario Team
What's at stake
Ali Bagautinov is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +4 while a loss costs more — Marcos Vinicius carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+4→ 1720
If they lose-20→ 1696
If they win+27→ 1460
If they lose-5→ 1428
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1588 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1582 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Ali BagautinovMarcos Vinicius
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ali Bagautinov82%
Marcos Vinicius 18%Elo baseline: 84%
The Combat Edge model makes Ali Bagautinov a 82% favorite over Marcos Vinicius in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (84%).
Ali Bagautinov holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1716 to 1433, a 283-point edge.
Ali Bagautinov enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Ali Bagautinov finishes 50% of wins inside the distance.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.