Combat Edge Intelligence

Ali Bagautinov vs Marcos Vinicius

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

22-7-0Record1-3-0
FlyweightDivisionStrawweight
5'4"Height5'6"
65,0"ReachTBD
125 lbsWeight115 lbs
Fight Club KrepostTeamZe Mario Team

What's at stake

Ali Bagautinov is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +4 while a loss costs more — Marcos Vinicius carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Ali BagautinovNow 1714
If they win+4→ 1718
If they lose-20→ 1694
Marcos ViniciusNow 1429
If they win+40→ 1469
If they lose-8→ 1421

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1582 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1591 · 9 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.85
Sig. strikes / min
1.93
42%
Strike accuracy
49%
3.09
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.91
52%
Strike defense
47%
2.51
Takedown avg.
0
37%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
65%
Takedown defense
25%
0.26
Submission avg.
0.49

Trajectory

Ali BagautinovMarcos Vinicius
1500160017002020202120222023

Win method breakdown

6 (27%)
KO/TKO
0 (0%)
5 (23%)
Submission
1 (100%)
11 (50%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Ali Bagautinov84%
Marcos Vinicius 16%Elo baseline: 84%

The Combat Edge model makes Ali Bagautinov a 84% favorite over Marcos Vinicius in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (84%).

Ali Bagautinov holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1714 to 1429, a 285-point edge.

Ali Bagautinov enters on a 3-fight win streak.

Marcos Vinicius enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Ali Bagautinov finishes 50% of wins inside the distance.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.