Ali Bagov vs Luke Rockhold
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
35-13-0Record16-6-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'9"Height6'3"
69.7"Reach77"
172 lbsWeight185 lbs
Fightspirit TeamTeamAmerican Kickboxing Academy· 1637 avg Elo · 6 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1755
If they lose-12→ 1731
If they win+16→ 1758
If they lose-16→ 1726
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1641 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1736 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Ali BagovLuke Rockhold
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Luke Rockhold52%
Ali Bagov 48%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Luke Rockhold a 52% favorite over Ali Bagov in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Ali Bagov's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1743 vs 1742), separated by just 1 points.
Luke Rockhold enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Ali Bagov finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Luke Rockhold 88%.
Luke Rockhold carries a 7-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.