Ali Bagov vs Thales Leites
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
35-13-0Record28-9-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'9"Height6'1"
69.7"Reach78,0"
172 lbsWeight185 lbs
Fightspirit TeamTeamNova Uniao
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1755
If they lose-12→ 1731
If they win+12→ 1757
If they lose-12→ 1733
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1641 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1715 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Ali BagovThales Leites
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Thales Leites56%
Ali Bagov 44%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Thales Leites a 56% favorite over Ali Bagov in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1743 vs 1745), separated by just 2 points.
Ali Bagov finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Thales Leites 68%.
Thales Leites carries a 8-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.