Ali Bagov vs Tim Kennedy
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
35-13-0Record18-6-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'9"Height5'11"
69.7"Reach74,0"
172 lbsWeight185 lbs
Fightspirit TeamTeamJackson-Wink MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1741
If they lose-12→ 1717
If they win+16→ 1746
If they lose-16→ 1714
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1595 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1686 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Ali BagovTim Kennedy
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ali Bagov62%
Tim Kennedy 38%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Ali Bagov a 62% favorite over Tim Kennedy in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Tim Kennedy's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1729 vs 1730), separated by just 1 points.
Tim Kennedy enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Ali Bagov finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Tim Kennedy 78%.
Tim Kennedy carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.