Ali Mashrapov vs Geoff Pavey
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-15-0Record3-3-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'8"Height6'5"
TBDReach-
172 lbsWeight186 lbs
Jash-Kuch· 1567 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamSensei MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1515
If they lose-12→ 1491
If they win+24→ 1524
If they lose-24→ 1476
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1519 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1514 · 6 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Ali MashrapovGeoff Pavey
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Geoff Pavey56%
Ali Mashrapov 44%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Geoff Pavey a 56% favorite over Ali Mashrapov in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Ali Mashrapov's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1503 vs 1500), separated by just 3 points.
Ali Mashrapov finishes 76% of wins inside the distance, Geoff Pavey 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.