Alibi Idiris vs Lucas Rocha
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-1-0Record18-2-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'6"Height5'2"
68"Reach64"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Erkin Kush· 1702 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamRenovacao Coari Team· 1671 avg Elo · 4 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1715
If they lose-16→ 1683
If they win+16→ 1712
If they lose-16→ 1680
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1546 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1564 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Alibi IdirisLucas Rocha
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Lucas Rocha52%
Alibi Idiris 48%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Lucas Rocha a 52% favorite over Alibi Idiris in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Alibi Idiris's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1699 vs 1696), separated by just 3 points.
Alibi Idiris finishes 55% of wins inside the distance, Lucas Rocha 78%.
Alibi Idiris carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.