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Combat Edge Intelligence

Alik Lorenz vs Bill Mahood

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Bill Mahood
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Bill Mahood

“The Butcher”

20-7-1Light HeavyweightXFC

1641Solid

Tale of the tape

8-2-0Record20-7-1
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'2"Height6'3"
77"ReachTBD
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
MMA LabTeamRevolution Fight Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Alik LorenzNow 1638
If they win+16→ 1654
If they lose-16→ 1622
Bill MahoodNow 1641
If they win+12→ 1653
If they lose-12→ 1629

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1517 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1494 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not available
Sig. strikes / min
0.43
Not available
Strike accuracy
100%
Not available
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
6.09
Not available
Strike defense
18%
Not available
Takedown avg.
0
Not available
Takedown accuracy
Not available
Not available
Takedown defense
0%
Not available
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Alik LorenzBill Mahood
160016502008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

7 (88%)
KO/TKO
15 (75%)
1 (13%)
Submission
4 (20%)
0 (0%)
Decision
1 (5%)

Combat Edge model read

Alik Lorenz63%
Bill Mahood 37%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Alik Lorenz a 63% favorite over Bill Mahood in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Bill Mahood's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1638 vs 1641), separated by just 3 points.

Alik Lorenz enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Bill Mahood enters on a 5-fight win streak.

Alik Lorenz finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Bill Mahood 95%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.