Alik Lorenz vs Guy Mezger
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
8-2-0Record30-13-2
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'2"Height6'1"
77"ReachTBD
205 lbsWeight200 lbs
MMA LabTeamLion's Den Dallas
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1653
If they lose-16→ 1621
If they win+12→ 1651
If they lose-12→ 1627
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1513 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1562 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alik LorenzGuy Mezger
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alik Lorenz87%
Guy Mezger 13%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Alik Lorenz a 87% favorite over Guy Mezger in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Guy Mezger's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1637 vs 1639), separated by just 2 points.
Alik Lorenz enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Alik Lorenz finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Guy Mezger 57%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.