Combat Edge Intelligence

Alikhan Suleymanov vs Fernando Padilla

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

18-5-0Record16-6-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'10"Height6'1"
72.8"Reach76"
146 lbsWeight145 lbs
Fight Club Akhmat· 1684 avg Elo · 22 ratedTeamTeam Oyama· 1645 avg Elo · 6 rated

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Alikhan SuleymanovNow 1671
If they win+16→ 1687
If they lose-16→ 1655
Fernando PadillaNow 1672
If they win+16→ 1688
If they lose-16→ 1656

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1536 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1583 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not available
Sig. strikes / min
6.48
Not available
Strike accuracy
42%
Not available
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
5.25
Not available
Strike defense
54%
Not available
Takedown avg.
0
Not available
Takedown accuracy
0%
Not available
Takedown defense
100%
Not available
Submission avg.
0.77

Trajectory

Alikhan SuleymanovFernando Padilla
16501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

2 (11%)
KO/TKO
5 (31%)
11 (61%)
Submission
9 (56%)
5 (28%)
Decision
2 (13%)

Combat Edge model read

Fernando Padilla63%
Alikhan Suleymanov 37%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Fernando Padilla a 63% favorite over Alikhan Suleymanov in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1671 vs 1672), separated by just 1 points.

Alikhan Suleymanov finishes 72% of wins inside the distance, Fernando Padilla 88%.

Fernando Padilla carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.