Alistair Overeem vs Augusto Sakai
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
47-19-0Record16-6-1
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'4"
TBDReach77"
256 lbsWeight264 lbs
Elevation Fight TeamTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
Alistair Overeem is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Augusto Sakai carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+8→ 1768
If they lose-16→ 1744
If they win+22→ 1656
If they lose-10→ 1624
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1729 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1689 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alistair OvereemAugusto Sakai
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alistair Overeem72%
Augusto Sakai 28%Elo baseline: 67%
The Combat Edge model makes Alistair Overeem a 72% favorite over Augusto Sakai in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (67%).
Alistair Overeem holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1760 to 1634, a 126-point edge.
Augusto Sakai enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Alistair Overeem finishes 89% of wins inside the distance, Augusto Sakai 69%.
Alistair Overeem and Augusto Sakai share 1 common opponent: Jairzinho Rozenstruik.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.