Combat Edge Intelligence

Alistair Overeem vs Ben Rothwell

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

47-19-0Record39-14-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'4"
TBDReach78"
256 lbsWeight265 lbs
Elevation Fight TeamTeamRothwell MMA

What's at stake

Alistair Overeem is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Ben Rothwell carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Alistair OvereemNow 1760
If they win+10→ 1770
If they lose-14→ 1746
Ben RothwellNow 1713
If they win+14→ 1727
If they lose-10→ 1703

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1729 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1685 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.67
Sig. strikes / min
3.71
64%
Strike accuracy
43%
2.44
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.63
57%
Strike defense
47%
1.42
Takedown avg.
0.68
56%
Takedown accuracy
34%
73%
Takedown defense
70%
0.83
Submission avg.
0.41

Trajectory

Alistair OvereemBen Rothwell
17001750201920202021

Win method breakdown

25 (53%)
KO/TKO
28 (72%)
17 (36%)
Submission
7 (18%)
5 (11%)
Decision
4 (10%)

Combat Edge model read

Alistair Overeem54%
Ben Rothwell 46%Elo baseline: 57%

The Combat Edge model makes Alistair Overeem a 54% favorite over Ben Rothwell in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).

Alistair Overeem holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1760 to 1713, a 47-point edge.

Alistair Overeem finishes 89% of wins inside the distance, Ben Rothwell 90%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.