Alistair Overeem vs Brock Lesnar
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
47-19-0Record5-3-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'3"
TBDReach81"
256 lbsWeight265 lbs
Elevation Fight TeamTeamTeam Death Clutch
What's at stake
Alistair Overeem is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Brock Lesnar carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+6→ 1766
If they lose-18→ 1742
If they win+36→ 1597
If they lose-12→ 1549
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1728 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1650 · 8 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Alistair OvereemBrock Lesnar
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alistair Overeem82%
Brock Lesnar 18%Elo baseline: 76%
The Combat Edge model makes Alistair Overeem a 82% favorite over Brock Lesnar in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (76%).
Alistair Overeem holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1760 to 1561, a 199-point edge.
Brock Lesnar enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Alistair Overeem finishes 89% of wins inside the distance, Brock Lesnar 80%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.