Combat Edge Intelligence

Alistair Overeem vs Brock Lesnar

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

47-19-0Record5-3-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'3"
TBDReach81"
256 lbsWeight265 lbs
Elevation Fight TeamTeamTeam Death Clutch

What's at stake

Alistair Overeem is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Brock Lesnar carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Alistair OvereemNow 1760
If they win+7→ 1767
If they lose-17→ 1743
Brock LesnarNow 1590
If they win+35→ 1625
If they lose-13→ 1577

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1729 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1648 · 9 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.67
Sig. strikes / min
3.53
64%
Strike accuracy
72%
2.44
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.11
57%
Strike defense
51%
1.42
Takedown avg.
3.90
56%
Takedown accuracy
55%
73%
Takedown defense
60%
0.83
Submission avg.
0.49

Trajectory

Alistair OvereemBrock Lesnar
160016501700175020172018201920202021

Win method breakdown

25 (53%)
KO/TKO
3 (60%)
17 (36%)
Submission
1 (20%)
5 (11%)
Decision
1 (20%)

Combat Edge model read

Alistair Overeem83%
Brock Lesnar 17%Elo baseline: 73%

The Combat Edge model makes Alistair Overeem a 83% favorite over Brock Lesnar in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (73%).

Alistair Overeem holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1760 to 1590, a 170-point edge.

Alistair Overeem finishes 89% of wins inside the distance, Brock Lesnar 80%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.